If you lived through the early 70s, the name of one man evokes memories of how the world was changed by the politics and policies of the world's oil producers and by the actions and words of Sheikh Yamani, oil minister of Saudi Arabia from 1962 to 1986. In just a few years, oil went from becoming a cheap commodity to a heavily-taxed and highly-priced necessity.

When the countries of the Middle East were arbitrarily created by Britain with vague lines in the sands -- some still rather undetermined -- oil was only starting to become a dominant product. Now, all that we do is seemingly eclipsed by transportation on wheels and in the air. It was therefore staggering to read an interview with Sheik Yamani (London, Sunday Telegraph, June 25, 2000), who is now an energy consultant, where he said, "Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil - and no buyers. Oil will be left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end, not because we have a lack of oil."

Yamani predicts that fuel-cell technology will have a dramatic affect on the oil market. "This is coming before the end of the decade and will cut gasoline consumption by almost 100%. Imagine a country like the United States, the largest consuming nation, where more than 50% of their consumption is gasoline. If you eliminate that, what will happen?"

Yamani argues that it is relatively easy to find new oil reserves and cites recent finds in Egypt, the Caspian Sea, Yemen and elsewhere in Africa. I would imagine that with a heavy investment in production many of these new oil-producing countries will resent price controls effectively enforced by production controls from a group such as OPEC. And with such finds and the apparent size of Iraq's oil reserves -- hardly yet tapped -- Yamani's predictions of a collapse in the price of crude oil seems totally feasible. But fuel cell technology taking over transportation?

That problem of how to carry hydrogen around with you seems to be a rather large stumbling block for a universal application of the technology. Yes, I know there are Chicago Transit Authority buses driving around with huge hydrogen tanks on the roof, but that hardly seems practical for a private car or an airplane. And as I understand it, the real work that is going on for transportation solutions is to actually produce the hydrogen required from other fuels such as gasoline, methanol, ethanol or natural gas. Although there is an abundance of hydrogen in the world, there doesn't seem to be any easy solution for bundling it up. Or am I way off base? I know that all the automakers seem to have programs in place, with the first to the road seemingly being Daimler-Chrysler in 2003, but is that just a way to reduce the use of oil rather than eliminating it?

For smaller products, Motorola has already been talking of its work in "biofluidics" and the when rather than the if that these tiny cells will replace batteries. The company's goal is for a power source ten times better than a battery, a target that moves every few weeks.

Although the thought of a zero-polluting, naturally-powered vehicle is extraordinarily attractive, especially as you pull into that gas-station forecourt and hear the dials clacking away even faster, is this just another political device from the very canny man who made presidents and prime ministers weep?

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