Problem 3Suppose
a small manufacturer, who needs to make about 100 Ethernet devices,
decides to generate random MACs instead of going to the expense and
trouble of getting an OUI (organizationally unique identifier) from
the IEEE. Assuming that there are 100,000,000 devices out there that
are known to have unique MACs, what are the chances that they'll duplicate
an existing MAC? What if 100 manufacturers do this (10,000 devices)?
Answer 3
Again, it's easier
to find the probability that all of the randomly-chosen MACs won't collide
with existing ones and then take one minus that value. This can be expressed
as:
N = number
of addresses = 248
M = number of
existing devices = 108
K = number of
new devices = 100 or 10,000
probability
of collision = 1 ý ((N ý M)/N)K
This works out to
0.0000355 (36 chances in a million) for 100 devices and 0.00355 (0.35%)
for 10,000 devices.
Contributor:
Dave Tweed
03-02
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