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It is Saturday, January 01, 2000; the world appears to have survived the Y2K crises quite handily. So well in fact, that some people are saying the whole thing was a scam! A means to make money for programmers. This really irks me. What they should be saying is "Thank you programmers for making our computers safe." Of course that might also be incorrect. First of all, this is only the first day of Y2K, and it is a Saturday. The business world doesn't reopen till Monday. By February we should have a good idea if everything went as well as we hoped, not only in the US, but also in countries supplying the US, such as China. In China, this will be the year of the Dragon, and in the United States it will be the "Year of the Programmer".

The Year of the Programmer

No doubt about it, programmers are in control. Just look at what stocks got the biggest pop in 1999. Companies like, Red Hat, Inktomi, Healtheon, and anything that had a dot com in its name. These companies are valued in the billions, even though they haven't earned any money. What do they have in common? They do not produce hardware. Their strength is all about having good programming. As more and more brick and mortar retailers, and bankers, come on line, the demand for web page design and data handling will explode. The most highly capitalized and feared company in the US is Microsoft, a company of thirty thousand programmers (and about ten thousand of them millionaires). The ability to make computers bend to your will makes big bucks today. Of course this will be true because 2000 will also be the "Year of High Bandwidth".

The Year of High Bandwidth

High-speed Internet access, has become affordable and available. Companies are installing T1 lines for their employees and home surfers will soon have a choice of a cable modem or an ADSL connection.

As more and more people start using high-speed connections, more and more web sites will cater to them. The use of streaming audio and video can greatly enhance a presentation. Today web site designers use every trick they can to insure that a site will download quickly, even at 28K. Now they will have to detect your connection speed and modify the content to your capability. Digital video production companies will emerge to produce the web commercials. When you click on a banner a voice might tell you about the product, with a video showing it to you. Audio and Video conferencing will be common and free with a high speed connection. Colleges will be able to allow students to audit classes on line, and email homework and questions. Virtual colleges will be competing on line with brick and ivy ones. High-speed access will create a two-tiered Internet, the 56K people and the high speeders. Many people will prefer to use the low cost or free providers even though they are only at 56K. The truth is that until enough web applications are designed to take advantage of the new high speeds, 56K will be adequate. Of course all these high speed access portals will make 2000; "The year of the Firewall." as well.

The Year of the Firewall

Families are becoming two or three computer families. The kids, mom and dad all want their own personal computer. Networking, either wired or wireless will become popular, as it will allow all the computers in a house, to share the same high speed Internet access, for one price. The problem here is that the Internet will become a part of your home network, allowing hackers an open gate to walk through. Firewalls will become common to guard against being hacked or even queried.

Also some more obvious predictions:

Microsoft will drag out the government's case for years, unless it gets a favorable settlement. By the time the case is heard, the industry will have changed so much, that the verdict will be meaningless. IBM used this strategy and won, why shouldn't Microsoft.

Look out Internet stocks.
A record number of IPOs will be issued in 2000. Venture capitalists are roaring into Silicon Valley. These VCs, are the Johnny-come-lately banks, and Wall Street investment firms that missed the Yahoo and Amazon money. Anyone with a half-baked idea and a can of Pepsi in their hand, can elicit a few million from these guys. In order to get their money back, they take you public, the market bites, everyone is rich, and the public ends up holding the bag.

As Amazon increases its sales, and its losses, investors will begin to suspect that Jeff Bezos, is the Ponzi of the 21-Century. This could cause a sell off of Internet stocks, bursting the bubble.

Google.com will rise to number one search engine.
The web search engine, google.com, is the fastest and most accurate search engine I have used. It should be on you list of search engines. Check it out next time you want to find something.

Farewell:
Iridium
Electric cars
Day trading. (Day traders will all go broke)
HDTV (costs too much and has no programming available)

Frank Greenhalgh
January 1, 2000

About the Author

Frank Greenhalgh has been working in power supplies and systems for 38 years. He has many impressive accomplishments and patents. Over the years he has made significant contributions to Trio Laboratories where he held the position of Chief Design Engineer and was then promoted to Vice President.