The wireless market seems like it's a plump, ripe tomato ready for picking by the first company that has a "killer app" to snatch it from the vine. But is it ripe? So far, there have been only minor winners, which may not be caused by the lack of creative thinking but more by the technology not being as fully developed as the marketers would like.

According to a study from ComScore Media Metrix, only 11 percent of US wireless users actively access the Internet wirelessly. That translates to only about 9.9 million Americans. Very few people are using wireless connections, says Nick Hunn, Managing Director at TDK Systems www.tdksystems.com, because it's just too difficult to use and inconvenient to connect the cable from a PDA to a cell phone. Many companies are looking at wireless today and admitting that it isn't taking off the way marketing firms predicted. But, if we look at Ethernet it took about 10 -15 years before it became endemic and then another 10 years as it moved from standard for 10 Mbits/s to 100 Mbits/s and then to 1 Gbits/s.

"What I think has happened over the last 3-4 years for Bluetooth (www.bluetooth.org) is that too much happened too soon," said Mr. Hunn. "People expect that the hockey stick growth of a product happens from day one of the technology rather than on year 4 or 5." Hunn says that too many companies getting involved in these new technologies are starting to trash pricing before the technology gets through the general adoption and irons out the problems. "It's a real problem with a lot of wireless technologies including WiFi, Bluetooth, and GPRS, and we will get it in the neck over the next few years with 3G," added Mr. Hunn.

WiFi, Bluetooth, and GPRS technology is shipping today. There are about 13 to 15 million wireless LANs today, Bluetooth has about 15 to 18 million devices out there. However, none of these technologies are at the mind numbing numbers that the analysts have predicted. Hunn says Bluetooth will probably see a large distribution a lot quicker than other wireless technologies. It has one big advantage because it supports voice - a killer app. In Europe, already there are many people using Bluetooth headsets.

Another application picking up steam is hands-free kits placed in the dashboard of cars. That is being driven by the mobile phone network operators. According to Hunn, one of the network operators claims that 70% of all mobile phone calls originate from cars. These network operators are very concerned about legislation banning mobile phone calls in cars. What's very interesting is that both the handset industry and the automotive industry are saying they want to push for full hands-free phones in the car. In the Bluetooth arena there has been a massive amount of effort for a hands-free solution. There has also been support from the car industry.

Car vendors like Bluetooth because it means they can build a hands-free unit into the dashboard that should be good for the life of the car and it should work with any handset on the market. This will put pressure on the handset vendors to put Bluetooth in every handset, stated Hunn. The pair of those will drive volume. This will also drive standards development, which is nearing completion. Presently, there is a hands-free profile that has completed all its committee work, is out for final comments before approval, and should be released in the next couple months.

Hunn says mobile data rates are quite useful if you can get it off the mobile phone onto a computing device such as a laptop or PDA. This becomes possible with Bluetooth circuits in the phone. He sees the phone as being key to a lot of Bluetooth applications. Additionally, the next generation of Bluetooth headsets will be more power efficient. Many are also looking at the next stage of Bluetooth to offer voice integration. The PC cards already support voice. Now, with the same Bluetooth headset used with a cell phone, it can be used to get voice down to the PC. "That may sound like a worthless thing to do but the application can be Internet telephony," says Hunn.

For example, while staying in a hotel on business you can usually find a wireless LAN or a wired connection to the network. By using the Bluetooth headset you can connect to the Internet using the PC and use it for voice telephony for calls anywhere in the world for just a few cents a minute rather than a few dollars per minute. If you have the XP operating system all you need is a Bluetooth stack that supports voice.

Another simple application for Bluetooth may be if you have a standard landline phone and you want to divert the calls from that landline phone to a mobile phone. Unfortunately, people typically rush out of the office and forget to set it up. But if you have Bluetooth on your desktop it can detect that your cell phone is on your desk. If it is, all your landline calls will go through the landline. But as soon as the cell phone is out of range it diverts those landline calls to your cell phone, and that just needs a small piece of software.

It sounds like Bluetooth would be good fit for more than automotive and Internet telephony applications, such as music headsets for those mini MP3 players. But the time is not right for music because when Bluetooth was designed it was for telephony voice standards, not audio quality. You can push music over it but it doesn't sound inspiring. However, there's a new variation of the Bluetooth standard that may come out in 2003 and will improve the data rate to near CD quality. For now, voice is the clear winner.

You may wonder about dropped calls or interference but Mr. Hunn says he hasn't seen it even if he's running a wireless LAN in the same unit as the Bluetooth device. "Laptop to wireless LAN and Bluetooth headset to the laptop for a Voice over IP call over the Internet coexist remarkably well," he said.

Many businesses are looking closely at Bluetooth for is telemetry capability. Particularly for industrial usage in vertical applications for companies wanting to replace RS232 cables. Telemetry is taking off much faster than many had expected. When probed about interference in telemetry applications, Mr. Hunn said that Bluetooth is very good for dealing with interference because it can frequency hop 1600 times/second over 79 discrete frequencies.

"Unless you have massive broadband interference it is very robust, and Bluetooth has an advantage because it is one of the most recent products defined for 2.4 GHz," said Hunn. When it was being designed, the RF engineers knew what the likely interfering frequencies would be so they took steps to mitigate the interference. Fortunately, most telemetry doesn't need to be real time and the Bluetooth frequency hopping enables the signals to get through. The transfer rate will vary but in telemetry there isn't a need for large transfer rates. As long as you're not trying to transfer audio it won't be a problem. Some studies indicate that plastic enclosures can impede Bluetooth signals. However, it depends on the type of plastic used. Some plastics aren't transparent to 2.4GHz but typically ABS plastic is good to use. If you use plastic, avoid those that are carbon or a metallic-loaded and don't use a metallic paint on the surface. Additionally, run some RF tests to verify your design.

However, not everyone agrees that you can mix wireless technologies. Some have noticed that if a single 802.11b access point is more than 20 meters from the wireless LAN card and Bluetooth is active, the 802.11b signal will terminate. Additionally, if you are using an active Bluetooth device, the access point must be within 10 meters or the signal will be interrupted. The point to remember is that Bluetooth is always active. As long as the device integrated into a notebook, cell phone, or PDA that is on, the Bluetooth device is always polling for a similar technology.

There are however, other possibilities for short-range wireless. One possibility has a curious name that reminds one of a circus performer's stage name. It's called ZigBee (www.ZigBee.com) and is similar to Bluetooth in application. ZigBee is considered a low cost Bluetooth solution but it isn't as far along in development.

The ZigBee Alliance was formed to address a class of devices not thoroughly articulated in the original HomeRF MRD document. ZigBee will provide for a class of devices differing from the first HomeRF technology implementation by allowing for lower data rate communications at a cost point and power consumption curve substantially below existing implementations. These devices will address the high volume market segments including PC peripherals, gaming, home security, home automation, home control, and toys. They will strive to provide a wireless version of "hot plug and play".

ZigBee is aimed at being a $1 solution rather than a $5 solution, said Mr. Hunn. It also uses 2.4GHz for communications but other frequencies may be used. ZigBee is a general-purpose radio link being designed for those applications where Bluetooth is too expensive. The target market for products incorporating the ZigBee capability are single and multi-family dwelling residents who have a multimedia PC with interactive gaming options, or a 32" television equipped with Home Theater features, Internet access (for WebTV) or a video gaming console. Other possibilities include low cost solutions for interconnectivity between toys; homes with installed security, home automation or HVAC systems, and new homes with plans for these systems. The Small Office/Home Office (SOHO) market may also find use for ZigBee products for controlling multimedia presentations, conference rooms, training rooms and automation or control functions.

A Frost & Sullivan's study also discusses the implications of the development of wireless public network access on mobile network operators. It specifically looks at the advantages and disadvantages of offering these services as well as analyzing the situation of different mobile operator types, such as cellular-only, fixed, and mobile operators.

The study says revenues for public wireless access in Europe was $4.12 million in 2001, and is forecasted to leap to $3.06 billion by 2006. However, these encouraging growth expectations are not deemed spectacular among the mobile network operator community. Additionally, the study warns that the fast rollout of wireless LAN access points, which allow the user to connect wireless-enabled laptops or PDAs to the Internet at speeds of up to 11 Mbits/s, will detract from 3G operators' mobile data revenues in the future.

Many see Bluetooth as complementary not competitive to 802.11. Bluetooth, and maybe ZigBee, are good for voice and low power, while 802.11a/b are good for data transfer. The future looks very good for these wireless technologies and we probably will see each carve out their own niche market as products begin to roll out over the next couple years. Tune in next year to see what applications are the winners.

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